Preview: UFC 317 ‘Topuria vs. Oliveira’

UFC Flyweight Championship

Alexandre Pantoja (29-5, 13-3 UFC) vs. Kai Kara-France (25-11, 8-4 UFC)

BETTING ODDS: Pantoja (-245), Kara-France (+200)

Pantoja’s flyweight title reign will hit the two-year mark with a win here, and it has been a nice victory lap for a long-underrated fighter. The UFC attempted to bolster its flyweight ranks in 2016, holding a season of “The Ultimate Fighter” full of regional champs and promising the winner an immediate title shot. Pantoja was the rightful top seed after a nine-year regional career that clearly had him ready for the big time. Pantoja wound up getting upset in one of the season’s semifinals, but the expectation was that “The Cannibal” would quickly find his way to a title shot anyway. However, the Brazilian instead wound up taking the long road. Pantoja was clearly a top flyweight in the UFC from the jump, as well as being one of the division’s most exciting fighters as an aggressive madman, but he had a knack for suffering just the wrong loss at just the wrong time as far as his title hopes were concerned. Pantoja’s wrestling got stalled out in a 2018 loss to Dustin Ortiz and 2020 loss to Askar Askarov, and a 2019 fight saw eventual champion Deiveson Figueiredo prove himself to be one of the few men capable of outgunning him.

The Askarov loss briefly seemed like it might close Pantoja’s championship window for good, particularly after his bounce-back fight against Manel Kape saw him put on a surprisingly conservative performance. Pantoja thankfully doubled down on what made him great and ran through Brandon Royval and Alex Perez to make him the clear next contender. Pantoja’s title shot wound up coming against old foe Brandon Moreno in 2023. Pantoja had beaten Moreno on “The Ultimate Fighter” and in 2018, and he wound up completing the sweep in one of the best fights of the year, gutting out a coinflip of a fight to finally get his deserved reward after a decade and a half of hard work. Given Pantoja’s reputation for excitement, his first title defense was a bit of a bust. A rematch against Royval was much more of a grind than their first affair, with Pantoja defending his title in an uninspiring decision. He got back to doing Pantoja things in 2024. He surprisingly wound up headlining two pay-per-views despite his relative lack of star power but ended each night on a high note, gutting past Steve Erceg in a five-round war and putting on a showcase to submit Kai Asakura in the second round. There wasn’t an obvious title challenger for Pantoja coming off the Asakura win in December, but things have settled in an interesting spot, with Pantoja getting one of the most exciting opponents possible in Kara-France—another former foe from “The Ultimate Fighter.”



The UFC passed over signing some of the contestants from that season of “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2016, and the most surprising omission might have been New Zealand’s Kara-France. There might have been better fighters on the season, but Kara-France was the type of prospect the UFC typically loves, a power-punching knockout artist who still had a lot of potential to improve. It took until 2018 for “Don’t Blink” to finally get his UFC shot, and while the knockouts initially dried up, Kara-France established himself as a relevant concern and a reliably exciting fighter, leaning on his power to win some back-and-forth decisions. It was still unclear if Kara-France would ascend to true title contention, as fighters like Moreno and Royval were able to outpace him—with a solid dose of grappling—to clear victories. After his 2020 loss to Royval, Kara-France managed to rediscover his finishing ability with knockout wins over Rogerio Bontorin and Cody Garbrandt, but a decision victory over Askar Askarov in 2022 felt like the Kiwi’s true breakout. Askarov, a dedicated wrestler, figured to swamp the City Kickboxing star on paper but wound up running into some greatly improved takedown defense, as Kara-France started to dominate the fight down the stretch.

Kara-France wound up losing to Moreno once again in his next fight, but it does feel like he has hit a new level since that win over Askarov. By all counts, he deserved what wound up as a split decision loss to Amir Albazi, and he rebounded with a quick knockout win over Erceg. That Erceg fight showed one of Kara-France’s traditional issues, as for all his power, he doesn’t have many weapons from range. That mattered up until the point that it didn’t, as Kara-France sprung in from a distance to start the fight-ending flurry. This does shape up as a sneakily difficult fight for Pantoja, as the champion doesn’t seem to have the best game to match up with what his challenger currently brings to the table, particularly if those improvements in the latter’s defensive wrestling hold. Pantoja has the rare level of durability that can absorb Kara-France’s power, but he will still come out behind in a shot-for-shot battle. Pantoja’s best hope figures to be leaning on that wrestling. Even if that doesn’t succeed at first, he could wear Kara-France down through sheer attrition up until the point that a submission presents itself. With that said, the call is that Kara-France can keep this standing enough to win rounds, landing with enough power to come out on the right side of one of Pantoja’s nip-tuck brawls. The pick is Kara-France via decision.

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Topuria vs. Oliveira
Pantoja vs. Kara-France
Van vs. Royval
Moicano vs. Dariush
Lima vs. Talbott
The Prelims